update #2: this year in baseball

Note: This post is related to my February 22, 2009 post on baseball predictions and the mid-season update of those predictions from July 24, 2009.

Well the regular season is over (minus a 1-game AL Central playoff game) and this means the results are in. Here’s how my predictions for the AL East standings turned out:


Predicted AL East Standings 
(February 22, 2009)
Yankees 101-61 (62.4%)
Red Sox 95-67 (58.6%)
Rays 84-78 (51.9%)
Blue Jays 80-82 (49.4%)
Orioles 72-90 (44.4%)

Current AL East Standings 
(October 5, 2009)
Yankees 103-59 (63.6%)
Red Sox 95-67 (58.6%)
Rays 84-78 (51.9%)
Blue Jays 75-87 (46.3%)
Orioles 64-98 (39.5%)

The order is correct, the Red Sox and Rays are exactly right, the Yanks are off by 2 games, the Blue Jays are off by 5 games, and the Orioles are off by 8 games. Collectively, the predictions are off by an average of 1.8% which is very good. If only I knew that the Blue jays would tumble and the Orioles were going to fight the Nats and the Pirates for the worst team in the league.

So the playoffs are coming up, and the match-ups are set (except for the AL Central division winner). The Yankees shouldn’t have a preference between the Twins or Tigers because they will most likely whoop either of them. The Yanks were 7-0 vs the Twins this year (although five of the games were decided by 2 runs or less) and were 5-1 vs the Tigers this year (with a combined score of 30-15). It would be nice to avoid Verlander for two games in a match-up vs the Tigers, but it’s safe to say the run production and grit of the Yanks will definitely put them into the ALCS, regardless of their opponent.

I think it’ll be against the Angels. Sure, everyone roots for a NY-Boston match-up, and Boston typically does well against the Angels, but I think we’ll see a long series end with the Angels moving on.

And despite struggles versus the Angels, the Yanks silence the haters and beat them, winning the ALCS in 6.

In the NL, we’ll see the Cards beat the struggling Dodgers (sorry Torre & Donnie!), and the surging Rockies knock off the Phillies. Cardinals beat the Rockies in a great 7-game series to win the NLCS.

Yankees vs Cardinals World Series: I’ll keep this one simple. Yankees prove they are once again they are the most dominant team in the history of the universe. Carpenter gets a win in a thriller but the Yankees dominate the rest, winning the series 4-1. If you think anything different will happen, then you are crazy. The Yankees are unbeatable now, and will be for the rest of time.

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4 thoughts on “update #2: this year in baseball

  1. I think you are letting your love for the yanks slant your judgement. although, it is scary how accurate your predictions were. you should be a betting man, mr. B!

  2. you are correct – i am letting it slant my judgement… away from probabilistic guesswork and closer to intuitive absolute truth! it starts tonight @ 6pm go yanks!

  3. Well the Melk Man and Cano put up stats equal to or better than their great 2006 season, Damon tied his career high in jacks (24) had his second best season in terms of RBIs (71) and had his fourth best season in terms of OPS. So there is some argument that a-rod and tex helped deflect spotlight from other teammates thus helping their contribution to great (and balanced) team production.On the other hand the Cubbies came up short so I was quite wrong there. Even Milton Bradley couldn't help the Cubbies monopolize the NL Central away from the Cards.

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