update #2: this year in baseball

Note: This post is related to my February 22, 2009 post on baseball predictions and the mid-season update of those predictions from July 24, 2009.

Well the regular season is over (minus a 1-game AL Central playoff game) and this means the results are in. Here’s how my predictions for the AL East standings turned out:


Predicted AL East Standings 
(February 22, 2009)
Yankees 101-61 (62.4%)
Red Sox 95-67 (58.6%)
Rays 84-78 (51.9%)
Blue Jays 80-82 (49.4%)
Orioles 72-90 (44.4%)

Current AL East Standings 
(October 5, 2009)
Yankees 103-59 (63.6%)
Red Sox 95-67 (58.6%)
Rays 84-78 (51.9%)
Blue Jays 75-87 (46.3%)
Orioles 64-98 (39.5%)

The order is correct, the Red Sox and Rays are exactly right, the Yanks are off by 2 games, the Blue Jays are off by 5 games, and the Orioles are off by 8 games. Collectively, the predictions are off by an average of 1.8% which is very good. If only I knew that the Blue jays would tumble and the Orioles were going to fight the Nats and the Pirates for the worst team in the league.

So the playoffs are coming up, and the match-ups are set (except for the AL Central division winner). The Yankees shouldn’t have a preference between the Twins or Tigers because they will most likely whoop either of them. The Yanks were 7-0 vs the Twins this year (although five of the games were decided by 2 runs or less) and were 5-1 vs the Tigers this year (with a combined score of 30-15). It would be nice to avoid Verlander for two games in a match-up vs the Tigers, but it’s safe to say the run production and grit of the Yanks will definitely put them into the ALCS, regardless of their opponent.

I think it’ll be against the Angels. Sure, everyone roots for a NY-Boston match-up, and Boston typically does well against the Angels, but I think we’ll see a long series end with the Angels moving on.

And despite struggles versus the Angels, the Yanks silence the haters and beat them, winning the ALCS in 6.

In the NL, we’ll see the Cards beat the struggling Dodgers (sorry Torre & Donnie!), and the surging Rockies knock off the Phillies. Cardinals beat the Rockies in a great 7-game series to win the NLCS.

Yankees vs Cardinals World Series: I’ll keep this one simple. Yankees prove they are once again they are the most dominant team in the history of the universe. Carpenter gets a win in a thriller but the Yankees dominate the rest, winning the series 4-1. If you think anything different will happen, then you are crazy. The Yankees are unbeatable now, and will be for the rest of time.

this year in baseball


i just wanted to throw out some predictions for this coming year in baseball. to start, here are three small reasons the yankees will win the world series this year.

1. the numbers
39 appearances (26 wins) in 106 years = in world series once every 2.7 years and a championship every 4 years. last appearance was in 2003. bound to happen.

2. the stadium
thing is awesome. no better way to bless the place than with a championship.

3. the young guns
more big names means deflected pressure and attention from cano, melky, damon, nady (if they are all still around for the year). if they can each put together some decent season numbers, the support is in place for those big names and the success runs full circle (or diamond).

Another thought: Cubbies make the World Series (but lose it to NYY)

2009 Predicted AL East Regular Season Standings
Yankees 101-61
Red Sox 95-67
Rays 84-78
Blue Jays 80-82
Orioles 72-90