update: this year in baseball

On February 22, 2009, I posted my baseball predictions for this year. Today I went back to see how those predictions were turning out and was pleasantly surprised. Here’s how I stand:
Predicted Final AL East Standings (February 22, 2009)
Yankees 101-61 (62.35%)
Red Sox 95-67 (58.64%)
Rays 84-78 (51.85%)
Blue Jays 80-82 (49.38%)
Orioles 72-90 (44.44%)
Current AL East Standings (July 24, 2009)
Yankees 58-37 (61.05%) –> 99-63
Red Sox 55-39 (58.51%) –> 95-67
Rays 52-44 (54.17%) –> 88-74
Blue Jays 47-49 (48.96%) –> 79-83
Orioles 41-53 (43.62%) –> 71-91
The order is correct and collectively the winning percentages are off by an average of 1.00%. If calculating a final win count off current winning percentages, Yanks are off by 2 wins, Red Sox are exactly right, Rays are off by 4 wins, Blue Jays are off by 1 win, and Orioles are off by 1 win. Not too bad I must say… but reveal my methods? Hah!
The other prediction of Cubs playing the Yanks in the World Series may be a bit of a stretch, but they are only 3 games back in the NL Wild Card and are 5-2 out of the All-Star break. Still a possibility.
Finally, I hope I don’t jinx myself here but I’ll pass along a post of why the Bronx Bombers will be winning the AL Pennant. I agree with the power, health, and depth, but it’s too soon to make predictions off current streaks coming out of the all-star break.
“A humble man of grace and dignity. A captain who led by example. Proud of the pinstripes tradition and dedicated to the pursuit of excellence. A Yankee forever.” – Don Mattingly’s plaque in Monument Park


So I was walking home from work the other day and experienced a good thought-triggering event. A car pulled out of its parallel parking spot and darted into traffic, essentially cutting off a car cruising at normal speed. I could write a novel about horn honking alone, but it was pretty apparent that the disruptor of traffic flow deserved the horn of death – and he/she certainly got it.

But this got me thinking along the lines of my previous post on complements and natural balance. Does the car horn restore balance or disrupt it? I think you can make the argument either way. In one regard, the act of darting into traffic disrupts the normal flow of traffic. But what purpose does the blaring horn serve other than to show you are angry?

I think it’s about the effect is has on the horn recipient. They may have spent the past few days filled with road rage and impatient driving, maneuvering recklessly into traffic more and more each day. It’s not until a good horn of death rings in your ears that you realize you may be putting others at risk and endangering yourself. At some level, I think the horn restores some driving normalcy to recipients of the horn. A periodic wake-up call to drive safely, perhaps.
Well although the horn example may be a stretch to some, there are many other balancers and neutralizers that restore some sort of equilibrium in this world. They align with the concept of complements and allow our world to continue developing at a manageable, within-an-arms-reach pace.
Politics – In a multi-party system, the scale never tips beyond a controllable level, and therefore we are guaranteed checks-and-balances on policy, law, and governing bodies over time. (1)

Sports – Rules, organiation, and oversight allow for equilibrium to be maintained over the years. No one team or division or conference truly dominates any sport (besides the Yankees). (2)

Weather – If it was always sunny, we wouldn’t appreciate the good weather. If it was always rainy, we wouldn’t appreciate a refreshing shower.
Anyways, just some thoughts that correlate to complements around us. As with the sun and the rain, the balancers let us gain insight from disruption.
(1) Source of data: Infoplease
(2) Source of data: Wikipedia

this year in baseball

i just wanted to throw out some predictions for this coming year in baseball. to start, here are three small reasons the yankees will win the world series this year.

1. the numbers
39 appearances (26 wins) in 106 years = in world series once every 2.7 years and a championship every 4 years. last appearance was in 2003. bound to happen.

2. the stadium
thing is awesome. no better way to bless the place than with a championship.

3. the young guns
more big names means deflected pressure and attention from cano, melky, damon, nady (if they are all still around for the year). if they can each put together some decent season numbers, the support is in place for those big names and the success runs full circle (or diamond).

Another thought: Cubbies make the World Series (but lose it to NYY)

2009 Predicted AL East Regular Season Standings
Yankees 101-61
Red Sox 95-67
Rays 84-78
Blue Jays 80-82
Orioles 72-90